archive

The research, in full.

Every note we have published. Long-form, free, and structured around frameworks rather than picks. New work appears here weekly.

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By-product credits, and why companies don't tell you about them

Six reasons polymetallic miners under-disclose integrated economics — and what changes when the next sequenced study arrives. Worked example on a junior lithium-tantalum-caesium developer.

2,400 words · 14 min

How to pull apart a published NAV figure

Four assumptions stacked inside a single per-share number. Spot held flat in real terms; an 8% discount; a basic share count; sole-asset, no-overhead, no-risk-premium framing. Each one moves the answer.

1,900 words · 11 min

"Funded to FID" doesn't mean what you think it means

The dilution math retail investors consistently miss in junior miners. The share count on a slide deck is rarely the share count that ultimately matters for per-share value.

2,100 words · 12 min

When discount rates lie

Why moving from 8% to 12% halves the value of a five-year-out asset. A working note on choosing the right rate for the right development stage.

1,700 words · 10 min

The shareholder register tells you what the marketing brief won't

Retail share at 13% versus a typical 30–50% for pre-production developers. The structural under-bid by the cohort that historically pushes valuation higher — and how it un-winds.

1,400 words · 8 min

AI capex versus AI return: the question every hyperscaler will eventually answer

A reading of META's $125–145B capex bump alongside GOOGL's Q1 cloud reacceleration. Two adjacent trades; two very different ROI profiles.

2,000 words · 11 min

A small private company, writing publicly

An introduction to Elvora Capital, what we publish, and what we explicitly do not publish. The prospectus, more or less.

900 words · 5 min